River & Rural Realty--Find Virginia Waterfront property on the Northern Neck
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River & Rural Realty LLC
P.O. Box 503
Warsaw, VA 22572

Office: (804) 333-3311

Kathryn Murray, broker
Warsaw, VA 22572
(O): (804) 333-3311
Cell: 804-450-4442
Fax: 877-295-0940
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Minor sales update

I'm sure it can be argued that there is no way to project what our 2016 sales will be on the Northern Neck given what I'm putting up here today. And I might even agree. So if you take the below information with a grain of salt and know that things can change quickly....I had a not so good first half of 2015 and then I had a great second half....well the same can be true of our market. Still, I needed to put something up and I'm going to write about selling your property and the value of various approaches, but that will be by the weekend at latest. This is all I have time for at the moment.

These numbers are the January 1 through February 3 sales numbers. This is for 2014, 2015 and now 2016. One might think that January sales reflect whatever momentum the market has in the fall. I would certainly believe so. We can't blame the lesser numbers of 2016 on the snow, since contracts that would close in January 2016 were set in motion in November or December.

It is always nice to know more even if it isn't necessarily a clear projection of the future. In that vein, here are the numbers:

All residential sales 1/1 to 2/3
  2014 2015 2016 active
# sold 27 37 27 689
$ sold (millions) 7.2 10.6 7.9 288.7
Median sales price 169,000 240,000 245,000 299,500
Median days on market 199 233 226 237

2016 sales are fewer than those in 2015. Same number as 2014. Sales dollars are a touch higher in 2016 over 2014....but considerably lower than 2015. 2016 median sales price is close to 2015 and both are much higher than 2014's. Median days on market is a little lower this year. Actives....well yes, a lot of them. The median sales price of actives is a fair amount higher than the sold one for 2016. 

Waterfront residential sales 1/1 to 2/3
  2014 2015 2016 active
# sold 7 17 13 364
$ sold (millions) 4.6 8.3 5.9 226.4
Median sales price 535,000 377,000 317,000 475,000
Median days on market 299 240 269 253

2016 has seen a drop in number of properties sold, total dollars sold and the median sales price when compared with 2015. It is ahead of 2014, though. Median days on market increased for these 2016 solds. Actives....yes, a lot of them and the median sales price is quite a bit off of the solds median sales price of 2016. Something to think about.

All land sales 1/1 to 2/3
  2014 2015 2016 active
# sold 3 9 7 812
$ sold (NOT millions) 360,000 815,500 382,500 125.8
Median sales price 45,000 65,000 21,500 75,000
Median days on market 142 315 265 504.5

We already know that land isn't racing off the shelf (so to speak) and this confirms it. Look at 2016. With 7 sales there are hardly any more dollars than those spent in 2014 on 3 properties. The 2016 median sales price is $21,500 for those 7 solds. Looking at the actives we see that there are a huge number of lots available for sale (812), that their dollar value is considerable and that the median sales price is $75,000 vs. the $21,000 of the most recent solds. The most shocking number may be that the median days on market for the actives is 504. There have got to be some listings that are in MLS that have been in for 6, 7 or 8 years....those listings skew this number big time.

What these numbers suggest is that anyone buying land is getting a good deal because sellers have to price right to get their land sold. Then again, even at the right price some land just doesn't have any takers. Not an easy situation for sellers, but certainly great for buyers.

I don't know if any anecdotal information makes a difference, but I've heard of a fair number of deals that were supposed to be completed by the end of the year but haven't closed as yet. There have been all sorts of problems to sort out and so that may be affecting our numbers. Then again given how deals can go, this kind of situation probably is ongoing and so it may have no weight in our lesser numbers in 2016. Aren't you glad I clarified this for you? No crystal ball here. Just simple straight-forward numbers to give us a sense of what is going on.



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