It's funny. You see the information come onto the MLS day after day after day. You get a sense of what seems to be happening, but then there is no replacement for actually looking at the numbers. Something about that data suggested to me that we aren't doing as well this fall in terms of sales as we had last year. My guess, or my gut was correct. We're not. This, of course, with a year where we have been doing better overall....but maybe we won't end up ahead if these months dial things back to about what 2014 was in total. We'll see.
Here are numbers for August 1 through October 27th. This is for waterfront residential (all) and then I'll just show the over $500,000 numbers for each year and the actives.
Waterfront residential sales 8/1 through 10/27
$ sold (millions)
Median sales price
Median days on market
Looking at properties price over $500,000 I found that 15 sold in 2013 in this period. Then 17 sold in 2014 in this period and 16 in 2015. At the moment we have 202 active waterfront properties in the four counties priced over $500,000. If you were to multiply 16 x 4 to approximately annualize our 2015 figures what we come up with is 3.125, or roughly 3 year's worth of inventory for those properties.
If our total actives are 490, and we subtract out the 202 for the over $500,000 we are left with 288 actives. These are the waterfront properties priced under $500,000 currently on the market in the four counties. The number of solds in 2015 is 48. Multiplying that by four to annualize it we get 48x4=192. So really for this category we are close to a one year supply of listings. That's not bad. Then again you can't know how many listings have come off the market because some sellers don't tend to think that property sells this time of the year. This doesn't tell you anything definitive at all. Just that you'd far perfer to be in the under $500,000 category than in the over $500,000 category when trying to sell waterfront residential property in the Northern Neck right now.
It was just a feeling but the numbers bear me out. Sales in 2014 at 75 were better than the 64 we've experienced in that same time frame. Don't know if this means something significant, but it will be interesting to see how the year finishes out.